Oscars 2026 predictions
Awards Roundup
It’s been minus 5 in parts of Britain, recently, but we have the warm glow of awards season to keep us cosy. A number of big ceremonies have already taken place and this week we’ll get the Oscar nominations. The Bafta nominations will follow, a week later, this year, although the Oscars ceremony will, as usual, be held last. It will be interesting to see how effectively the Bafta noms land after the more eagerly anticipated Oscar ones.
For some films, filmmakers and actors it’s already been the hot flames of wins and sure-fire upcoming nominations. In other cases there are still the burning embers of hope. And for some, it’s probably, now, the ashes of campaigns that have begun to implode.
I say this every year and it holds true again: despite what some pundits claim, there is no secret ‘formula’ for working out who will be nominated or who will win. There is no ‘inside information’ that is certain. All of us just piece together opinions we hear on the grapevine from those in the industry, watch the trajectory for a movie or actor/actress and put 2+2 together, sometimes making 4, sometimes 5 and sometimes 532648…..
So, I’ve been asking friends in Hollywood what and who the main chatter is about, I go to awards screenings and parties myself and I’m keeping an eye on the mood of the awards ceremonies so far.
Based on all that and pure instinct, here are some thoughts:
Best Director. Best Film
It seems to have been decreed that this is the year Paul Thomas Anderson finally gets his flowers as Best Director. Few would argue that he doesn’t deserve them. However, the jury may still be out on whether his film One Battle after Another is the right vehicle for his accolades. Although, within the industry, the movie has been heavily promoted as the preordained favourite to win Best Film, there’s a question mark about how loved it really is. While Sinners is most strongly pitted against it, if it comes to beloved films, Hamnet could be the big rival.
Personally, I’d love to see Hamnet win. It’s what cinema was made for; to evoke intense emotion, to tell a story, to draw you into a world that is not your everyday experience, to keep you involved and engaged in the lives of others and to keep thinking of what you watched for days and weeks after you’ve seen it, because it’s stayed with you.
Hamnet director, Chloe Zhao, is a very likely nominee, alongside PTA. As is her friend from Sundance lab days, Ryan Coogler, for Sinners. Guillermo Del Toro for the towering achievement that is Frankenstein. And then, depending on how well the film does in other categories, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value.
Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme can’t be counted out. The film has outgrossed One Battle After Another, at the US office and has run a strong campaign.
One name likely to be missing from the Best Director lineup is Mona Fastvold. Her film, The Testament of Ann Lee has been criminally neglected so far and it’s hard not to see Oscar following suit. For my money, the film was the most audacious, in yer face and mesmerising of 2025. See my review at MovieMarker. Fastvold’s achievement in making it is tremendous.
The likely film lineup is: One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners,Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It was Just an Accident, Bugonia, Train Dreams.
Best Actress
A friend who was at the Golden Globes and who takes little notice of chatter, tells me that even he noticed how everyone is talking about Jessie Buckley. Other friends who have been doing the awards party circuit concur. Ireland’s finest is apparently the talk and the toast of the town.
Buckley is currently the front runner to win Best Lead Actress and deservedly so. She wrings her soul out on screen, in Hamnet, as Agnes Shakespeare and grabs yours too, taking it with her on a profoundly intense journey of grief.
With a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in each hand, already, and an array of precursor critics prizes, Buckley is marching, inexorably, perhaps, towards Oscar.
The obstacle in her way comes in the form of Rose Byrne from If I had legs I’d kick you. Who knew the snobby one from Bridesmaids had such a fiery, heart wrenching performance in her.
Emma Stone refuses to be ruled out, despite two very recent Oscar wins. Bugonia has its fans and even though she has not campaigned very actively, her nomination could be assured.
A victory at last weekend’s European Film Awards may have strengthened Renate Reinsve’s chances for her understated, nuanced portrayal in Sentimental Value.
Chase Infiniti will probably get into the magic 5 for her great turn in OBAA.
However, a late surge from Kate Hudson from Song Sung Blue is heating up nicely to possibly take one of the actresses, listed above, out. Her inclusion would ignite some heated discussion on the Internet. Hudson is a very good actress whose roles since her fantastic early bow in Almost Famous have not matched her talent. Arguably, she has given better performances in some of those other films but it would be churlish to begrudge her a nomination when she brings so much heart to Song Sung Blue. It’s interesting that the film’s male lead, Hugh Jackman, hasn’t made a dent in awards season, to date.
Hudson also has the advantage of being utterly beguiling in person which is very helpful on the campaign trail. It also doesn’t hurt being Hollywood royalty. She’s the daughter of Goldie Hawn and stepdaughter of Kurt Russell.
It’s mind blowing to me that Amanda Seyfried, in The Testament of Ann Lee isn’t a top contender for the Oscar but, instead, has been fighting all awards season to even be nominated.
I was awestruck by her performance when the film premiered at Venice. That the acting guild, formerly SAG, now the Actor awards, didn’t reward her with a nomination is incomprehensible.
Best Actor
Word is that this is a fight between Timothée Chalamet going for his first Oscar at age 30 and Leonardo DiCaprio gunning for his second. I’m told that Chalamet has the slight edge but the Academy has been notoriously reluctant, to date, to award young actors early in their career (although they are more open to awarding young actresses).
Wagner Moura from Brazil’s The Secret Agent has a lot of steam behind him to secure his place on the list. But apart from Chalamet and DiCaprio, there are no certainties.
Michael B Jordan looks a good bet for Sinners but Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) has been campaigning hard. Jesse Plemons from Bugonia would be a popular addition. But don’t rule out a surprise such as Lee Byung-hun (“No Other Choice”) or Joel Edgerton from Train Dreams.
Best Supporting Actor
This is, probably, the toughest category and the hardest one to call. In the heavyweight corner are three veterans: two who already have Oscars; Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro, and a 74-year-old, with a stellar career behind him, looking for his first – Stellan Skarsgård.
In the Challenger corner are the young bucks: Paul Mescal and Jacob Elordie. Any one of this five would be a worthy winner.
Penn and Del Toro are both from OBAA and risk cancelling each other out with voters. Unless Mescal takes the Bafta, his portrayal of William Shakespeare in Hamnet has not, so far yielded any significant wins to suggest Oscar is coming his way. Elordi took the Critics Choice award and could pull off the only acting win for Frankenstein but he’d have to take either Bafta or SAG/Actor to get there.
That then leaves Skarsgård. At 74 he has paid his dues in both European and US cinema. A dependable character actor who has shown immense range in his work, the man deserves his flowers. As he said, himself, in a recent interview, cinema is not a book and it’s not always about dialogue, it’s a visual medium And in Sentimental Value he gives a restrained masterclass in acting with his face and eyes.
Best Supporting Actress
Another interesting category in which the fortunes of the likely contenders have ebbed and waned. None more so than for Ariana Grande. She started the season as a potential winner but now there is a question mark as to whether she will even secure a nomination.
The reality is, she’s actually a co-lead in Wicked:For Good. She has the more interesting story arc, more screen time and the more compelling performance that has to run the whole gamut of emotions as she navigates loss, betrayal and a resigned acceptance of destiny. By contrast, Cynthia Erivo has nowhere to go in the film, hence her increasing absence from the awards conversation. She really only had one story to run; that of the misunderstood villain. Even that doesn’t work because she is never truly villainess. For a wicked witch, she is remarkably
unwicked. That’s the fault of modern Hollywood, not the actors. It takes iconic evil characters and totally neuters them with soppy back stories designed to evoke sympathy. As a film too, Wicked has totally lost steam.
If Ariana is not to win or even gain a nomination, my choice would be Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners. Some money is on Amy Madigan for Weapons. But Teyana Taylor has the Golden Globe for OBAA. The nominee lineup should also include Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Sentimental Value.
Odessa A’Zion from Marty Supreme is the one whose strong showing at the 11th hour could knock out one of the actresses whose nomination is on a precipice.
Surprisingly, the always excellent Emily Watson has not been a contender for her very pivotal role in Hamnet as Mary Shakespeare. She provides a central anchor to the film from which Jessie Buckley is able to soar.
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